How To Give Away The Game: Saints versus Falcons

This week the Saints go up against division arch-rivals the Atlanta Falcons, and it's shaping up to be one of the more exciting and emotional Monday Night Football games in recent memory.  The Falcons are two games ahead in the division race, and only one game, with one to play, if the Saints win on Monday night. The Saints gift-wrapped a game for the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday through ridiculously poor execution, most notably on a crucial third down screen pass right into well-covered zones of some of the league's best linebackers.

The Saints' motto last year was "Finish Strong."  This year, it's "Finish Strange."

Here are the Riparian Church Sports Division's keys to giving the game away to the Atlanta Falcons.

Veddy scary tight end. Must not run free.(1) Be certain not to cover the tight ends.  For my money, this game will feature two and maybe three of the four or five best tight ends in the game right now: emerging star Jimmy Graham and Jeremy Shockey of the Saints, and Gonzalez for the Falcons, who is just outstanding.Tony Gonzalez killed the Saints at their last meeting.  

If Scott Shanle at strong-side linebacker and the Saints safeties can't keep tabs on Gonzalez, game over.  Gonzalez and QB Matt Ryan are that good together. 

If Saints cornerbacks can play strong against the excellent Falcons wide-receivers, this matchup looks different: the safeties can help linebackers mind Gonzalez.  

The Saints' middle-of-the-road defensive line might help out a bit: Will Smith is quite capable of jamming Gonzalez at the line, but then, that opens the running game considerably.

Best bet: steal Gonzalez's keys the night of the game so he can't get to the stadium.

(2) Gregg Williams, mail in your performance.   Somebody should write a book right away on Gregg Williams' championship season last year, especially the playoffs.  After bringing some of the most creative blitz packages in football into the playoffs, he dialed it back for the Super Bowl and respected Peyton Manning's ability to beat the blitz, sometimes rushing only three defensive linemen.   (The big play of the game, however, came when he unleashed a blitz in the fourth quarter: really, he called a first-half and second-half gameplan.  It was defensive genius.)  

Against the Ravens, the Saints couldn't stop the run, and Williams seemed clueless about how to control Ray Rice.  That should worry Saints fans: Falcon running backs Michael Turner, Jerious Norwood and Antone Smith are pretty darn good.  If Gregg Smith isn't worried about them after Ray Rice ate his lunch last week, I'd like to know why.

To give this game away, the mad scientist needs to have his players totally unready to play playoff caliber defense this week against Matt Ryan, who handles the blitz exceptionally well, at least as well as Peyton Manning.  If the Saints don't get to Ryan early and often while the cornerbacks take away the hot-route in man-to-man coverage, Falcons win.  

Best bet: spike Williams' Gatorade with that stuff they gave the rat in Flowers For Algernon.Gregg Williams: Best defensive mind in football for some purposes. I hope those purposes include beating Matt Ryan.

(3)  DO NOT run the ball.  For the Saints, "running the ball" can include swing passes to RB's Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas and (if he's healthy) Chris Ivory.  

That's fine.  

But they've got to make sure that the Falcons linebackers don't have to play up a bit if they plan to lose this game: if the linebackers can sit in receiver Marques Colston's favorite zones, the safeties can help the corners pick up the Saints' best-in-the-league stable of outside receivers.  

But if linebackers respect Bush in the flat and Thomas / Ivory running in the middle, Colston's and the tight ends' short-yardage crossing patterns and seam-routes are gold for seven yards on most downs.  

The Saints offensive line struggled against the Ravens' elite defensive line: they need to come back strong against the Falcons, especially defensive end John Abraham (an excellent pass-rusher), but even more against tackle Jonathan Babineaux, an up-and-coming run-stuffer.  If the Saints O-line opens holes, this whole game is winnable.

Best bets: Subliminal messages in Sean Payton's headset: "Run the ball forty percent of the time.  They'll never expect that."Drew and Baylen: Concentrate, baby, or you'll need baylen out.  

And promise the offensive line a pony if they can keep Brees from getting sacked and open up running lanes.

(4) Drew Brees needs to be his sleepy self, and not finish strong.   Silly thing to say, of course: Brees is among the best quarterbacks in the league.  But lately he's been making mistakes, and showing his winning intensity only in early drives.  The Falcons can take that to the playoffs on Monday night.  

Best bet: Neurosurgery to make him temporarily forget that he has a newborn at home with his wife.

(5)  Get off on the wrong foot in the kicking game.  The Saints lost in September to the Falcons because of poor kicking by Garret Hartley, among other things.  If the game stays close, the kicking game will be important.  Hartley's no slouch: he kept the Saints in the Super Bowl long enough for the team to win with exceptionally good kicks under immense pressure.  

Hartley's early-season slump seems to be over.  He'll have a lot to say about whether the Saints win or lose.  Again.

In the same department, Saints kick-coverage has got to improve.  The Ravens are really good at that, but when you look at the film, they didn't have to be against elementary mistakes that the Saints were making on Sunday: such as, oh, I dunno, staying in your lanes to guard against the cut-back.

 The "back-side" of a kickoff return is the side of the field away from the runner's motion.  So if he's angling to the left, the runner's right is the "back-side" of the play.  There are guys who are supposed to guard against a "cut-back," a sudden reversal of direction (almost always the kick returner is better at this than the guys trying to tackle him).  The Saints got smoked on kick coverage. by not "staying home" in their designated lanes.

The Georgia Dome is the place to be on Monday night.  I'd say "I can't wait," but when you're a Saints fan, excitement and dread are often the same thing.