Saints at San Francisco: A Prediction.

It’s time for the Tuesday mail-call:

From the Mailbag:

Is God involved in sports?

That’s like asking if physics is involved in sports.

Except that the point of sports isn’t to manipulate God in one’s favor: that’s the function of religion.

Saints or San Francisco 49ers?

Hmm.  Offensive bad-ass or defensive bad-ass? 

I’m tremendously excited about this game.  It’s going to be fun to watch: based on fan-chatter, there’s tons of mutual respect between these two teams and their fans: I think neither side is comfortable writing off the other side’s enormous strengths.  (Hmm.  Fantasy team: Saints offense, San Francisco’s defense.)

I haven’t had a chance to watch anything but the highlights of San Francisco’s defense, but their statistics are impressive.  Impressive enough to say, This is a tough game to call, and toughest game all year for the Saints, unless the Niners come out flat, which coach Jim Harbaugh will not allow to happen.  Look for this to seriously dent their per-game scoring average.

Drew Brees can’t make mistakes in this game.  San Francisco has 23 interceptions (Detroit dropped several in the first playoff game); they tackle well (Detroit’s tackling was sinful); and their linebackers are frighteningly good.

ESPN’s Skip Bayless picks San Francisco and gives his reasons in this video (which coins the word “terrifical”): the Saints, he says are essentially a dome team, which is not precisely true: Drew Brees has proven he can win big and come from behind in tough outdoor games.  (Ask about it in Miami.) 

Don’t buy the argument that the Saints traveling west in the playoffs spells disaster.  When they lost in Seattle it was due to the lack of a healthy running-back.   This year they have a tough, strong running game, an all-pro offensive line that likes the run as well as the pass, and the willingness to use it.

And naturally, never count Drew Brees out of any game until very, very late.

But the ‘Niners have something that has caused problems for the Saints before: a strong defense with fast, smart linebackers.   They can limit the running effectiveness of the Saints and force the Saints to throw more than they want to, and are better equipped to defense the pass (and rush the passer) than any team in the NFL.

Game predictions?  Does it depend on the weather?

Not really.  Regardless of the weather, New Orleans will show us a different look than usual.  They won’t be in it to pile up yardage records or stratospheric scoring.   They’re going to have to show us they can grind it out against a tough, stingy defense.  It is a tough road game, and the spasmodic losses to Tampa Bay and St. Louis (?!) earlier this year are haunting the Saints: erase those, and this game is in the Volvo Superdome.

It will come down to the New Orleans game-plan, and to whether New Orleans can run the ball. 

Granted, San Francisco knows how to tackle: Detroit did not.  So it’s not going to be a walk in Candlestick Park.  But running the ball has to make a linebacker think twice about what’s happening in front of him as receivers flood his zone (and watch for a lot of zone floods from the Saints this week).

Running backs Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory have never had much trouble outdoors, so I’m really not terribly sure why anybody would make much of the Saints-are-an-indoor-team thing.  Thomas runs the screen incredibly well, even when the blocking falls to pieces.  Ivory is a great power-runner, and they both have excellent after-contact yardage this season.

But for my money the difference-makers in this game will be tight end Jimmy Graham and running-back Darren Sproles, who together with Brees makes up the shortest and deadliest backfield in the NFL.  Graham’s just the best tight end in the NFC right now, and he has to draw attention when he releases from the line.  Sproles meanwhile can run between the tackles, or off-tackle, or become a quick underneath receiver, and when he’s in the backfield, he makes all the linebackers worry a little more about covering their zones.  When he’s in the mix, it can create seams in zone coverage that New Orleans’ fast receivers can exploit. 

Sproles and Graham won’t give San Francisco the matchup nightmares they gave Detroit: in that game Graham didn’t have impressive numbers, but he drew a lot of coverage away from receivers who did.  The wisdom says that good defense beats good offense: so if I were putting my money down and going on my intelligence, I would probably have to pick San Francisco by a touchdown: 21-14.  (Yes.  I just suggested New Orleans would score only 14 points.)  If New Orleans comes out flat, that’s the score.

Even if they don’t come out flat, San Francisco should worry Saints fans.  Their linebackers will cover the deep middle zone well enough to take away the deep ball, and they roll zones (passing responsibilities off to other players) well enough to make sure that deep coverage doesn’t become a liability.  I think the Saints’ only hope in that case will be to design a series of layered zone manipulations, to clear zones out and exploit the vacated zones nearly perfectly with checkdown passes to Sproles and Thomas.

But Sean Payton and Drew Brees are in a zone right now.  They’ll have a game-plan.  They’ll make half-time adjustments.  They’ll fight to the wire. 

Saints win, 24-17.

Update on Tuesday, January 10, 2012 at 8:36AM by Otter

Points For Ironic Good Humor:

From the San Jose Mercury News:

Harbaugh and his coaching staff spent a great deal of time Saturday night breaking down tape on the Saints and preparing a plan for Saturday’s playoff game.

 At some point, Harbaugh called it a night. And just how does a coach sleep after watching an upcoming opponent amass 626 yards offense?

“It makes me go to bed and sleep like a baby,” Harbaugh said. “I wake up every hour crying.”

 I have the same reaction when I think about the ‘Niners going 15 games this season before they allowed a rushing touchdown.

A great coach, is Harbaugh.

49ers HC Jim Harbaugh on a conference call with NOLA media said the Saints are “scary good.” Says Saints LBs are the best they have faced

— New Orleans Saints (@Official_Saints) January 10, 2012

Update on Wednesday, January 11, 2012 at 10:35AM by Otter

Mike Sando at ESPN writes dryly,

The San Francisco 49ers will need their linebackers to cover the New Orleans Saints well on shorter passes. They will need to remain opportunistic on intermediate passes. They will aso need to guard against the long ball. 

Got it.  Cover the Saints on short, medium, and long passes.  No problem.   (Actually, it’s less of a problem for San Francisco than it has been for anybody else this year.  Their linebackers are outstanding.)

Sando also calls my attention to this perceptive and heartwarming storyline about 49’ers kicker David Akers:

Just one year ago, doctors discovered that Akers’ 6-year-old daughter had a cancerous tumor. Akers himself had lost most of his career earnings to a fraudulent investor. He missed two field-goal attempts during the Eagles’ 21-16 playoff defeat and soon found himself out of work. Reilly: “So there it was, the trifecta — nearly broke, a sick kid at home and silently dumped by the team he’d given 12 terrific years. Akers is a guy who’s insecure about his footing in the NFL anyway. He’d been a waiter at a Longhorn Steakhouse in Atlanta, a substitute teacher and a kicker for NFL Europe in Berlin, where he nearly died during a one-month hospital stay for salmonella. The man who saved him from that life was then-Philadelphia special teams coach John Harbaugh [brother of San Francisco head coach Jim Harbaugh), who called him up for a tryout in 1998. Akers stuck. And he’s been terribly fond of Harbaughs ever since.” 

Akers has had a great year, beating the ‘Niners’ franchise record for kickers.  If he kicks them past the Saints, I can’t shelve my loyalties enough to be happy about it, but I’ll be less aggrieved than if quarterback Alex Smith outplays Drew Brees.

Update on Saturday, January 14, 2012 at 8:10PM by Otter

Defense still wins in the playoffs.

With the exception of an uncalled helmet-to-helmet contact in the first Saints possession that swung the momentum early, it was a clear case of superior play by the 49’ers defense.   Fair and square: the Saints were bested.

The 49’ers defense overwhelmed the potent Saints offense, and Alex Smith and Vernon Davis overwhelmed the Saints defense when it mattered most.   No more needs to be said than that.

Comments

[Emma]

SF defense and the Saints lack off defense scares the shit out of me. If the O line can't protect Drew then the Saints are in a boat with holes, praying they can bail fast enough. If the O line can protect Brees.. Well, I believe Breesus could walk and run on water.