Saints-Lions: Prediction

Note: If you’re looking for my comments on the bad spot and the refereeing in the Saints-Lions game, click here.  My self-grade is below, after my prediction.

From the Mailbag: 

Are you ready for some football?

Hell yes.

When Hugh Douglas and Tedy Bruschi predict a major blowout, I get worried.  Both had great careers, but I’m not sure I like their analysis much.

So I better put up my own.

The real drama will be the Saints guards against the Lions’ defensive tackles.  Can’t wait to see that.  If Carl Nicks and Jahri Evans can open running holes in the middle of the line and preserve the pocket, game over: Saints win running away.  If the defensive tackles take away Drew Brees’ ability to climb the pocket or step into his throws, there’s gonna be enough excitement here to satisfy the most demanding taste.

My prediction: Brees has a rougher night in the pocket than he has for some time, but still gets the job done: the Lions’ tackles couldn’t stop the Packers throwing-game last week, and I think that Evans and Nicks and center de la Puente are better than the Packers’ guards.  Suh and company take away his step-up throw and the ability to run up the middle on a few plays, but not enough to win: Brees finds a way to adjust and beat them.  Lions defense forces one bad throw and interception, but needs more.  

The Saints will come out with quick passes and runs on the first series, as they did against Carolina and Atlanta to slow down the pass-rush and give the linebackers something to think about.  Look for over-under coverage on Colston to free up Sproles and Graham. 

Lions safeties have a good night taking away the long ball and keep the Lions in the game, but they give up at least one long touchdown.   Saints running backs make the difference tonight: Sproles, Ivory, and Thomas have good nights running off tackle and taking swing passes and circle routes underneath the linebackers.  Play-action kills the Lions and clears the medium crossing-, out-, and seam-routes, especially for Graham and Colston.  Lions hold Saints to less than six plays of more than twenty yards or more.

Stafford has a good game but makes mistakes when blitzed.   Saints control but can’t quite shut down Calvin Johnson in double coverage, who gets two touchdowns but less than a hundred yards.  The Lions running game gets two big plays but needs greater consistency and creates trouble for Stafford on third down.

Saints win 38-31. 

Update on Saturday, January 7, 2012 at 11:58PM by Otter

Drew Brees leads the Saints in the pre-game chant.

Update on Sunday, January 8, 2012 at 12:56AM by Otter

Well, let’s see how I did: I’m giving myself a grade of B-.

The real drama will be the Saints guards against the Lions’ defensive tackles…

If the defensive tackles take away Drew Brees’ ability to climb the pocket or step into his throws, there’s gonna be enough excitement here to satisfy the most demanding taste.

My prediction: Brees has a rougher night in the pocket than he has for some time, but still gets the job done.

Well, I nailed that one: the pressure the Lions brought did disrupt the Saints’ offensive rhythm throughout the first half.  Brees was sacked twice and hit four times by a four-man rush.  The excellent Saints offensive line didn’t let that become the jailbreak that it did when we lost to the Rams.

Brees finds a way to adjust and beat them.  Lions defense forces one bad throw and interception, but needs more.  

Well, Brees fumbled it away.  Either way.  If the Lions’ secondary knew the rudiments of pass-catching, he would have thrown two interceptions.  The defensive pressure was aggressive, coverage was tight, and he made mistakes.  Not a lot.  But the turnovers were almost the difference for the Saints.

But Brees’ stats tell the tale: 33/43, 466 yards passing, 3 touchdowns, no interceptions (a gift from the Lions), and a stratospheric 134.4 rating.  No denying the boy’s got chops.  The Saints’ 626 yards of total offense is a new NFL playoff record.  Thanks to Brees, Saints punter Thomas Morestead was audited by the Unemployment Commission.  (Best headling, from ESPN’s website: “No Punt Intended.”)

The Saints will come out with quick passes and runs on the first series, as they did against Carolina and Atlanta to slow down the pass-rush and give the linebackers something to think about.  Look for over-under coverage on Colston to free up Sproles and Graham. 

Really, I got this backwards.  The Saints found Colston in loose coverage a few times.  The first play was a long strike to Henderson.

Lions safeties have a good night taking away the long ball and keep the Lions in the game, but they give up at least one long touchdown.

Coverage was very good by the Lions in the first half, but they did get a little torched.

Saints running backs make the difference tonight: Sproles, Ivory, and Thomas have good nights running off tackle and taking swing passes and circle routes underneath the linebackers.  Play-action kills the Lions and clears the medium crossing-, out-, and seam-routes, especially for Graham and Colston.

I nailed that one.  Graham didn’t have a particularly impressive game, by his standards, but he was a constant threat and drew linebackers’ attention when he was on the move.  The Saints running attack was impressive.  In the third quarter, Pierre Thomas had something ridiculous like nine yards per carry.

 Lions hold Saints to less than six plays of more than twenty yards or more.

The first Saints play went for 23 yards (Brees to Henderson).  I meant fewer than ten plays.  There were eight.  I know, I suck…. 

Stafford has a good game but makes mistakes when blitzed.

I was right about this.  The Saints didn’t blitz as much as I thought they should have, especially in the first half, but when they did it forced a number of mistakes, including one of the two interceptions Stafford threw, and a crucial holding penalty.  Going into the game, Stafford was only blitzed in 27% of his drop-backs.  Not sure what the figure was tonight.  When you have Calvin Johnson, you can beat the blitz by throwing up a jump-ball, I think: so I can’t criticize New Orleans’ Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams for rushing three much of the night.  But Stafford made his crucial mistakes under the blitz.

The blitz was the thing.

 Saints control but can’t quite shut down Calvin Johnson in double coverage, who gets two touchdowns but less than a hundred yards. 

Two touchdowns as predicted, but I was woefully wrong about the yardage… Johnson put up video-game numbers with 211 yards on 12 catches for two touchdowns and did whatever he wanted with the Saints secondary.  Johnson is frighteningly good and is fun to watch when you’re not playing against him.

The Lions running game gets two big plays but needs greater consistency and creates trouble for Stafford on third down.

The Lions broke plays of 8 and 9 yards, their longest rushes.  They need a credible rushing threat to win at this level.  New Orleans fans know how they feel: Seattle last year handed us our posteriors when we went to play without a good running back.

Saints win 38-31. 

I was damned close on this… if Stafford hadn’t thrown an interception to Jabari Greer, the Lions might have come away with a field goal in the fourth quarter instead of handing the Saints their final touchdown.  That would have been the score.

As it is, the Saints won, 45-28.

What was kind of hard to predict was the psychological game that was being played: the Saints, down through the first half, converted on three fourth downs in the game.  They just have that much confidence.  

The real test comes this week against maybe the league’s best defense in San Francisco.

Update on Sunday, January 8, 2012 at 9:05AM by Otter

There’s been a lot of chatter on Lions fan boards about a really generous spot the Saints got on a crucial third down, as well as some non-calls on what they perceive to be offensive holding by the Saints.

About the spots: these things happen in the NFL, not because of referee partisanship but because it’s pretty damned difficult to keep your eyes on every player on the field and the spot of the ball in a scrum of bodies.  Stafford’s one yard touchdown run was not, to my eye, a touchdown, but you accept these things are not always God’s-Eyeview.

The real scandal there was that Lions coach Jim Schwartz didn’t throw a challenge flag.  That’s what it’s there for, and you can challenge the spot of the ball.  Not one of the coaching staff on the sideline said, “Excuse me…. throw the red flag.  That spot is wrong.”  Or if they did, Schwartz didn’t have confidence in his staff to throw the red flag.

That’s on him.

As for offensive holding: that’s probably true, but I think fans who bitch about uncalled holding infractions need to look at their own offenses with what’s called “Socratic irony.”  They might (and would in this case) see that the refs applied a fairly even standard on both teams.  Egregious infractions were called.  Subtle variations were not.

Disgruntled fans should keep in mind that every NFL game is checked by a committee that grades the refs.  There are no payoffs in the playoffs.  There might be some unconscious pressure on the refs when they officiate powerful teams like the Saints at home: but they know that they will have to answer for a bad spot, a bad call, or a bad non-call.  They might lose their jobs over it.

I have tremendous respect for the Lions: Schwartz, Stafford, and Calvin Johnson are a trio you can build a winning franchise around, and the Lions will be fearsome in coming seasons.  

But if every call had been made with the impartiality of Solomon, the Lions would have lost.  They made crucial mistakes, and their tackling was sinful.  The coaches’ decision not to challenge a third down ball-spot will and should go in Schwartz’s permanent record, and he should let that haunt him until the system is in place that ensures it won’t happen again.

Comments

[Emma]

Talk at the gym was this game is going to be much harder for the Saints to win than last time. They have some players they were missing last time, and Saints have injuries.
Finish Strong!

[Otter]

It will be harder, and we'll miss Lance Moore and Casillas. Trust Breesus.